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18

16.06.2021

Bitcoin waiting for Fed statement

Bitcoin is in a narrow range as attention is focused on the US Federal Reserve's statement on monetary policy on Wednesday, which could provide clues about the central bank's course of action and cause volatility in financial markets.

 

The cryptocurrency is trading in a narrow range of $39,400 to $41,300 from Monday's European trading hours, data from CoinDesk 20 show.

 

"The market is completely neutral ahead of the Fed meeting with small spot purchases," said Brian Tehako, IT director at Warwick Capital Management. "Traders are waiting for the Fed's announcement."

 

According to singaporean company zCP Capital, this event is likely to cause a reaction of the binary market. Binary events are dramatic events that cause large movements in any direction.

 

"If the Fed remains "pigeon" (continued the bias towards stimulus), cryptocurrencies will have the greatest growth potential, at least until September, given the oversold that we have seen compared to other macro markets since the publication of the consumer price index in May," the company said in a Telegram channel.

 

Bitcoin dropped from $58,000 to nearly $30,000 in the eight days to May 19. The sell-off comes after official data released on May 12 showed the U.S. consumer price index rose to its highest level in nearly three years. This renewed fears about the Fed's premature winding down - the gradual winding down of incentives to increase liquidity.

 

However, while bitcoin fell due to fears of Fed tightening, traditional markets remained resilient, while gold rose by 7.8% in May. Shares also remained in value.

 

As a result, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general look relatively cheap before the Fed meeting, which can bring them the greatest benefit in the case of a "pigeon" decision.

 

On the other hand, the "hawkish" surprise can negatively affect the prices of assets. If they are "hawkish" on Wednesday, all bets will be made, and we expect that the market will return to recent lows," - said in the "CCP Capital.

 

According to Patrick Heusser, head of trading at Crypto Broker AG, "painful" trading can be a reaction to risk reduction, leading to the growth of safe currencies such as the franc, yen and US dollar, and the sale of commodities and stocks. "Reducing risk can also bring losses to bitcoin," Heusser said.

 

The cryptocurrency market seems to have tuned in to a surge in volatility after the Fed meeting." "The cryptocurrency market looks like a long range before this event," Denis Vinokurov, head of research at Synergia Capital, told CoinDesk.

 

Gamma refers to the rate of change in the option delta - the sensitivity of the option price to changes in the price of the underlying asset. That is, the gamma measures the rate at which the price of the option changes in the spot market changes.

 

Being a long range means holding an optional position with a net range of more than zero. Simply put, the position will benefit from increased volatility in the price of the underlying asset.

17

08.06.2021

Asia Pacific Stocks Mainly Fall

Asia-Pacific stocks mostly fell on Tuesday as investors reacted to the release of revised first-quarter Japanese gross domestic product data.

 

Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.19% to close at 28,963.56, while the Topix rose about 0.1% on the day to 1,962.65.

 

Revised government data released on Tuesday showed that Japan's economy contracted 3.9% in the first quarter, an improvement from an initial estimate of a 5.1% contraction. Revised gross domestic product versus economists' median forecast for 4.8% contraction in Reuters poll.

 

“We expect the economy to experience another contraction in the second quarter, given the expanded restrictions, which will put severe pressure, especially on the services sector,” Makoto Tsuchiya, an assistant economist at Oxford Economics, wrote Tuesday. “However, we remain optimistic that the pace of recovery will pick up in the second half as domestic demand recovers, supported by increased vaccinations, while external demand should continue to support the manufacturing sector.”

 

Mainland China stocks closed lower, with the Shanghai composite shedding 0.54% to 3,580.11 and the Shenzhen component dropping 0.98% to 14,716.98. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell about 0.1% in the last hour of trading.

 

Elsewhere, South Korea's Kospi fell 0.13% to close the day at 3,247.83. Australia's S&P / ASX 200 closed 0.15% higher at 7,292.60

 

MSCI, the largest stock index in Asia Pacific, fell 0.23%.

 

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of peers, was at 90.158 after an earlier low of 89.955.

 

The Japanese yen traded at 109.48 against the dollar, above levels above 110 against the dollar last week. The Aussie changed hands at $ 0.7741, largely holding up after rising below $ 0.768 last week.

 

Oil prices were lower in Asian afternoon trading and international benchmark Brent crude oil futures fell 0.62% to $ 71.05 a barrel. US oil futures fell 0.61% to $ 68.81 a barrel.

16

07.06.2021

Deutsche Bank announced inflation in the United States, drawing economic parallels with the 1940s, 1970s

Deutsche Bank, Germany's largest lender, said the U.S. may expect one of the worst inflation periods in history, arguing that higher government spending and soft monetary policy could combine to create conditions similar to previous episodes of the 1940s and 1970s.

 

According to a report released Monday, the pressure is compounded by the roughly $2 trillion in "excess savings" that consumers have accumulated over the past year, when many businesses have been closed and travel has mostly closed.

 

"Consumers will definitely spend at least some of their savings when the economy reopens," wrote Deutsche Bank chief economist David Falkerts-Landau, along with Peter Hooper, head of global economic research, and Jim Reed, head of case studies. a very real spectre of inflation driven by consumers."

 

Inflation is closely watched by investors in cryptocurrency, who consider bitcoin as a means of protection against the depreciation of the dollar.

 

But bitcoin has also sometimes traded in sync with risky traditional assets such as equities, and Deutsche Bank's authors have warned that when inflation eventually emerges, the Fed may have to react strongly, which could "cause a significant recession and trigger a chain of financial disasters around the world."

 

The warning stands in stark contrast to the repeated assurances by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that higher inflation is likely to be "temporary" and will stabilize over time as the economy recovers from the recession caused by last year's pandemic.

 

"The lack of preparation for the return of inflation is a cause for concern. Even if some inflation is temporary today, it can affect expectations as it did in the 1970s," the report says. "Even if they are implemented for only a few months, these expectations can be difficult to contain with such a strong stimulus."

  • One signal to be drawn to is the output gap, which measures the imbalance between supply and demand as a percentage of the economy's gross domestic product.
  • Deutsche Bank expects the U.S. output gap to exceed 2 percent, the highest in more than two decades as demand exceeds supply, leading to higher prices.
  • After the 2008 financial crisis, "the amount of U.S. stimulus was insufficient to close the output gap, and the recovery was unnecessarily slow."
  • But the widening output gap in the 1960s preceded high inflation in the 1970s, which was exacerbated by a series of oil price spikes.

 

Deutsche Bank estimates that legislative stimulus packages amounted to more than $5 trillion, or more than 25% of gross domestic product. The U.S. federal budget deficit is likely to be between 14% and 15% of GDP in both 2020 and 2021, up from about 10% in 2009.

 

During World War II, economists said, the U.S. deficit remained between 15% and 30 percent for four years.

 

"While there are many significant differences between the pandemic and world war II, we should note that annual inflation was 8.4% in 1946, 14.6% in 1947 and 7.7% in 1948 after the economy returned to normal and deferred demand was released," the report says.

 

The current political climate means that job growth may be a higher priority in the coming years than containing inflation.

 

Unlike in the early 1980s, when then-President Ronald Reagan supported Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who "put the economy to the test to suppress inflation, today this problem is seen as much less important than unemployment and broader goals of achieving greater equality in income and wealth," the report said.

 

"The Fed's retreat from pre-emptive action under the new policy is the most important factor that increases the risk that it will be far behind schedule and late to effectively deal with the problem of inflation without major disruptions," the authors write.

12

22.05.2021

Summers Says Crypto Has A Chance To Become Digital Gold

Former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that cryptocurrencies can remain a feature of global markets as something akin to "digital gold", even if their importance to the economy remains limited.

 

Speaking at the end of the week when Bitcoin was on the decline, Summers told Bloomberg Television Wall Street Week with David Westin that cryptocurrencies offer an alternative to gold for those looking for an asset, “separate and separate from the day-to-day work of government. ... "Gold has long been a major asset of this kind," said Summers, a paid member of Bloomberg. “Cryptocurrency has a chance to become an agreed upon form in which people who seek security store wealth. My guess is that the cryptocurrency will stay here, and will probably stay here as a kind of digital gold. "

 

 

According to Summers, if cryptocurrencies become even one third of the total value of gold, it will be "a significant increase in value over current levels," which means that "there is a good prospect that cryptocurrency will be part of the system for a long time."

 

Bitcoin is often compared to the yellow metal in the crypto community, with varying estimates of whether their total market value can be and how quickly to level out.

 

Yasin Elmanjra, a cryptanalyst at Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management LLC, said earlier this month that if gold's market capitalization is expected to be around $ 10 trillion, “It is possible that Bitcoin will reach gold parity in the next five years. ... “With a Bitcoin market capitalization of about $ 700 billion, this could mean a price increase of about 14 times or more.

 

But Summers said that cryptocurrencies are irrelevant to the economy as a whole and are unlikely to ever be used for most payments.

 

Summers' comments were echoed by Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, who doubted the value of cryptocurrency as a medium of exchange or stable purchasing power, but said that some forms of it may continue to exist as an alternative to gold.

 

“Cryptocurrencies will crash soon? Not necessary, "Krugman wrote in the New York Times. "One fact that makes even crypto skeptics like me ponder is the longevity of gold as a highly valued asset."

 

Summers also said that President Joe Biden's administration is moving in the "right direction" by asking companies to pay more taxes. He argued that politicians in the past have not been guilty of applying "too strong antitrust" regulation, although he cautioned that it would be "grossly wrong" to target companies simply because of increased market share and profits. Returning to my concerns about the US economy. the risk of overheating, Summers said, the Federal Reserve needs to be more aware of the inflationary threat: "I don't think the Fed's forecasts reflect the potential severity of the problem." "I'm worried that with everything that's going on, the economy might pick up a little."

13

22.05.2021

3 things you shouldn't do if the crypto market crashes

What if the cryptocurrency market collapsed tomorrow? it could happen. What will investors do? There are three very common things: selling your crypto assets, panicking, and then staying away from the crypto market for a long time.

 

These are three of the worst moves you can make during the collapse of the crypto market. Here's a closer look at why you shouldn't panic, sell, and stay away.

 

The crypto market is very volatile, and the market crash can happen at any given time, leading to a sharp drop in prices. While these accidents have underlying causes, it usually causes tsunami panic among investors, leading to further price declines.

 

According to the latest news, crypto-currency is currently bursting, where some major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum and Dogecoin, are moving through a significant drop in prices. Ethereum fell more than 40%, following Dogecoin and Bitcoin, due to repression in China.

 

This can again cause a wave of extreme panic and stress among investors. However, there are certain things that investors need to be aware of to help them through this accident. In times like these, it's important to remember what to avoid rather than worry about what to do. Here are three things you don't need to do if the crypto market falls.

3 Things not to do if the crypto market falls

 

The first emotion that investors take on during a market crash is panic and stress. But investors should always be prepared for such market volatility and prepare. The crypto market often faces inevitable collapses that will have a larger cause.

 

When such accidents happen, your holding company may be vulnerable to significant falls. Although the overall market drop to 20%, your specific stocks may fall by more than 40% or more.

 

Take bitcoin, for example. At the time of writing, the price of bitcoin has fallen by almost 30%, which can cause a wave of panic among BTC holders. But if you want to continue investing in cryptocurrencies further, you have to be prepared for such falls and outfit yourself to deal with them without panicking.

 

Panic selling is a major mistake that most investors show during the cryptocurrency market crash. In this scenario, the investor decides that he wants to sell everything they have in the market to reduce their losses. They do this without even considering the quality, efficiency or long-term effectiveness of their holdings, which is one you shouldn't do if the crypto market falls.

 

The blockchain market is subject to fluctuations, and this is quite natural. If you have made a solid investment, then manage them well and stick to the HODL method, the process of boasting your assets. By holding on, you will most likely see a good return on your investment over time.

 

Although, in fact, the sudden collapse is scary and causes a wave of panic in the market, it does not mean that you should take immediate action and sell it in a hurry and agree to less. Sometimes it is better not to do anything and wait until the wave clears. That's why patience is a necessary quality that any crypto-investor should have.

 

In addition, panic sales can also make the situation much worse during a market crash. Suddenly, growing sales activity will further chip away at market values.

 

Selling your purchases makes sense if there have been changes, in particular, the competitiveness of the cryptocurrency, the lack of company development or lack of transparency in future prospects. However, it is advisable to hold patiently during a market crash rather than jump on the "sell everything" bandwagon.

 

The crypto market is volatile, which not only means that it is prone to sudden failures, but also means that there will be sudden ups and downs after the market crash. The biggest collapse of the Bitcoin market undoubtedly occurred in March 2018, when BTC fell by more than 32%, followed by a collapse in March 2020 caused by a global pandemic and panic sales.

 

But the market rebounded in 2021, with BTC hitting a record high of $64,863.10 in April. Thus, hanging on to your crypto holdings during a market crash can bring reasonable or even substantial returns.

 

Therefore, never forget that after a huge sale, most cryptocurrencies, especially those that have a high market capitalization, will bounce back. It is also time for investors to expand their portfolios by looking at coins that have attractive prices.

 

The advice for investors is to maintain an online portfolio of cryptocurrencies that they would like to buy. Ideally, these cryptocurrencies should have excellent growth potential, high market capitalization, and are backed up by a strong community. Once the market recovers, look for coins trading at attractive prices, do a detailed study of its volatility and price rally, and grab an opportunity when you can.

Things not to do if the crypto market falls: The Last Word

 

Market corrections and accidents can be extremely disturbing and even scary, and just the thought of losing a hard-earned savings can drive you to follow the wrong crowd, ending up in the worst-case scenario. But on a positive note, investors often forget that a market crash can also open up new opportunities: To be successful in the long run, you need to be patient, level-headed, and understand that market fluctuations are part of the game.

 

Cryptocurrency is really a bubble that can burst at any time, but it can just as quickly recover to a profitable level. So always be aware of the above 3 things you shouldn't do if the crypto market falls, and strategically manage your investment journey for good returns.

14

22.05.2021

10 most important forex indicators for the US dollar

The US dollar has long been the most powerful and best-selling currency in the world. This is not surprising, given the reputation and position of the United States as the world's largest economy.

 

As the world's reserve currency, a currency owned not only by central banks but also by leading financial institutions for international operations, the US dollar is a key symbol of the global economy.

 

These are some of the key macroeconomic indicators that directly or indirectly affect the US dollar.

10 most important Forex indicators for US dollars

 

GDP or gross domestic product is the most widely accepted and comprehensive indicator of a country's economic condition. It is defined as the value of all end goods and services produced within the country.

 

After World War II, the United States was the world's leading economy, with GDP at even half the world's economic output.

 

Any change in a country's GDP also affects interest rates. An increase in GDP usually leads to a sharp jump in the interest rate, which in turn contributes to an increase in foreign investment. This obviously has a positive effect on the foreign exchange market and, in this case, on the growth of the dollar.

 

If GDP falls, the opposite will happen. Interest rates will also fall sharply, as will foreign investment, which will eventually lead to a fall in the foreign exchange rate.

 

The out-of-agriculture payroll, published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, focuses on employment figures with data on new added and lost jobs by month.

 

When more and more jobs are created, this has a positive effect on interest rates, which in turn increase foreign investment. This finally helps to strengthen the dollar and raise its rate.

 

The report, published weekly on Fridays, has a close relationship with GDP and the forex market. Since employment growth is also one of the Federal Reserve's three monetary targets, non-agricultural wage data also influence monetary policy.

 

This is a production indicator that reflects the value of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods in the United States. Here, durable goods are defined as goods whose lifespan is expected to last at least 3 years. This usually includes household appliances and equipment and does not include the transport industry.

 

Orders for durable goods are an important indicator because they focus on industrial production and reflect the economic situation in the country. After all, only in a healthy economy will the number of orders for expensive durable goods from buyers and production from companies increase.

 

It is clear that the higher the volume of orders for durable goods, this bodes well for the foreign exchange market and contributes to the further growth of the dollar. is a vital sector of any country's economy. In the United States, this data can be found in the New Home Sales Report, published by the U.S. Census Bureau, and in the Sales of Existing Homes report, the National Association of Realtors.

 

The performance is better than expected, is a good sign for the economy as a whole and helps to create a positive mood for the US dollar as well.

 

Another important indicator reflecting the state of the country's economy is personal consumption. This applies to consumer spending that occurs in the U.S. and the value of all goods and services purchased in the country.

 

The report, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is of particular importance because consumer and household spending accounts for two-thirds of U.S. GDP.

 

The trade balance consists of exports and imports and is directly related to the foreign exchange market of any country. The trade balance is an important indicator of a strong economy and affects the price of its currency.

 

The U.S. Trade Balance Report is prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau two months together and is published five weeks after the end of the month. It shows whether there was a trade surplus, which is an increase in exports compared to imports, or a trade deficit that is reversed.

 

This is directly related to the U.S. dollar with a trade surplus indicating higher demand for U.S. goods in foreign markets, leading to higher exports. This can be a positive sign for the dollar, raising its price.Conversely, the trade deficit arises when imports increase, which puts pressure on the US dollar and leads to its decline.

 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is published monthly. The consumer price index, or CPI, as it is commonly called, measures the price movement of a predetermined group of consumer goods and services. The CPI report helps to compare how much goods and services are worth this month with what they cost a month or a year ago, and how fast prices are rising or falling.

 

The CPI is a leading indicator because it can be used to track price changes and reflect inflation. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board closely monitors the consumer price index to ensure price stability.

Rising prices for the consumer price index indicate a weakening of the purchasing power of the US dollar and vice versa.

 

The Industrial Manufacturing Index measures U.S. production and industrial sector activity, which includes manufacturing, mining, gas and electricity, compared to the base year. The data is collected by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and published monthly on the 15th.

The better the indication, the higher the US dollar, and, conversely, weak data can also reduce its demand and rate.

 

Retail is a collection of retail sales. goods for the specified period of time, as well as a percentage change from the previous month. Retail sales, also known as retail sales, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Commerce Department and published monthly on the 15th. Retail includes spending on personal consumption, which is one of the key drivers of U.S. economic growth.

 

Higher sales point to a strong economy, while weaker sales point to a weaker economy.

 

Check out: 20 types of technical indicators used by trading gurus

 

The country's current account is directly related to economic indicators, as well as affects the productivity of the currency.

 

The U.S. Current Account Index measures monthly economic transactions between U.S. accounts and accounts from other countries. This includes exported and imported goods, services and interest payments.

 

If the U.S. economy shows a trade deficit, it means that the country has spent more on imports than it earns from selling its exports, and vice versa. .

 

You need to understand the most important forex indicators that affect the US dollar if you want to trade in that currency. The above parameters are a good place to start your analysis.

11

30.10.2020

Dividends and buybacks are on the rise, but that's not all good news

Dividends and buybacks are restored.

 

At the end of the first quarter, there were serious concerns that the levels of dividends and share buybacks would be drastically reduced. There have been cuts, but there is also good news against the background of bad ones.

 

Good and bad dividend news

 

For dividend enthusiasts, the end of the first and the beginning of the second quarter looked rather depressing. Forty-two companies from the SP 500 - almost 10% - have completely suspended dividend payments, and 25 have reduced them, in some cases significantly.

 

"It was unprecedented," said Howard Silverblatt of the Dow Jones Indices. "No company has suspended dividend payments in 2018 or 2019."

 

But when the economy reopened, the situation began to change. Five of the 42 companies that suspended dividend payments have recovered their dividends, at least in part.

 

Even as some companies recovered dividends, many more companies continued what they had been doing for years: increasing dividends.

 

This year, 216 companies increased their dividends.

 

The total figure: Silverblatt estimates that in 2020, the S'P 500 will pay $479.1 billion. dividends, which is only 1.3% lower than the 2019 record of $485.5 billion.

 

The bad news is that the yield of the SP is only 1.6%, which is one of the lowest dividend yields in decades.

 

Buyback rebounded from second-quarter lows, but companies issued far more shares

 

The second quarter started badly as companies sought to maintain liquidity by reducing buybacks. how much? In the first quarter, the companies from the SP 500 bought 199 billion dollars of their own shares. That figure fell to $89 billion in the second quarter, more than 50 percent less, according to Goldman Sachs.

 

But then a funny thing happened. Like profit, which bottomed out in the second quarter, buybacks also fell.

 

Goldman estimated that $112 billion was bought in the third quarter, up 26 percent from the second quarter, and Goldman estimates $125 billion will be repurchased in the fourth quarter.

 

That's good news. The bad news: According to Brian Reynolds, who tracks buybacks at Reynolds Strategy, while gross buybacks are rising, companies are also releasing many more new shares. Result: Net buyback volume - as many buybacks increase or decrease the total number of shares - were unchanged in the second quarter and is likely to remain unchanged until the end of the year: "The average company reported a 0.1% increase in the number of shares in the quarter compared to a 0.6% decrease a year ago," Reynolds said in a recent note.

 

The increase in the number of shares means that corporations cannot expect a buyback to increase their earnings. Reynolds noted that the buyout index of the S.P., which consists of 100 companies from the S.P., which most actively buy back their shares, has also moved from a reduction to an increase in the number of its shares. The ratings leaders include MGM, Best Buy, zualcomm, Kansas City Southern, Lennar, Cummins and Xerox.

 

"A year ago, less than 20% of the companies in this group increased their shareholding. Now it's 44%. It's an amazing shift," he said.

 

What does all this mean for investors? This year's index of S'P Buyback Index showed shortcomings, as investors bought out companies that in 2019 had a high level of buybacks for other segments of the market.

 

Reynolds concludes that perhaps it's time for those companies that can still aggressively buy back shares to outperform in terms of growth: "In terms of momentum, it looks like the shares of companies that can still buy back their shares are approaching the point where we want to buy them out on weakness."

 

On the increase in buybacks, Microsoft announced that it sharply increased buybacks in the third quarter from $5.8 billion in the second quarter to $6.74 billion.

9

15.07.2020

US tech stocks are on the rise.

On Monday, July 13, U.S. stock markets showed significant growth. The share price of the companies in the technology sector, which are part of the NASDA's Composite index, has reached its maximum figures. The situation with the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States leaves much to be desired, as the number of infected is growing exponentially.

 

The general situation looks like this on the stock markets:

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to 26.279 points, or 1.42 percent.
  • The Nasdaq Composite climbed 10,745 points, or 1.2 percent.
  • The SP 500 rose to 3.208 points (0.69%).

 

Particular attention should be paid to shares of Elon Musk's company Tesla, which again showed an increase of 11.3% in one trading day. Now the company has received significant demand from investors, as if the indicators continue to grow, Tesla will join the technology companies of the S'P 500. It is not surprising, because the experts of the S'P 500 quarterly balance the composition of the index, and one of the conditions of entry - is profitability for four quarters.

 

Tesla shares have risen 83% since mid-June to today, the most surprising thing the company makes from the options market. Equally interesting is the fact that Musk had to reduce the cost of the new Model Y electric car by 6%, which entered the market 3 months ago.

 

Other companies continue to grow. For example, the value of Maxim Integrated Products securities rose by a record 13.4%. The reason for the growth is the news about the company's merger with Analog Devices. According to preliminary estimates of experts, the merger of the companies will result in an approximate capitalization of 70 billion USD.

 

The leader of the fall was United Airlines, where the value of securities fell by 5.0%. At the same time, American Airlines shares fell 2.9 percent. The reason for the fall is news about the new wave of COVID-19 around the world. As for the United States, johns Hopkins University published data that showed that the number of people infected with coronavirus has increased to sixty thousand in the last few days.

 

Despite the negative news, the U.S. stock market has received support from Goldman Sachs, whose goal is to stimulate companies before the earnings reporting season. It is worth noting that the reporting for July will go down in history exactly the same as for June 2020.

10

26.05.2020

American stock markets are showing growth for the first time in a long time

U.S. stock markets opened higher amid news of looming progress in the development of the COVID-19 vaccine, not looking at the fact that as early as Friday the U.S. stock market suffered significant losses amid a number of pessimistic statistics and a new conflict between America and China.

 

The growth of quotations was also provoked by optimism about the restart of the world's largest economies and the statement of Jerome Powell that the current quarter will be extremely unsuccessful for the labor market and the economy as a whole. The expected unemployment rate in the United States is 25%, and GDP could fall by 20-30% due to the suspension of economic activity caused by the spread of coronavirus. Powell said- "I think there's a good chance that there will be growth in the third quarter. There should be a shorter recession."

 

FXTM chief market strategist Hussain Syed says that "the good news is that economies around the world are starting to reopen, indicating that economic activity will begin to partially recover from the full lockdown seen in April."

 

At the moment, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 693.91 points (2.93%) to 24,379.33 points by 17:23 Moscow time, and the Standard and Poor's 500 rose by 73.64 points (2.57%) to 24,379.33 points. and the Nasdaq Composite rose 176.73 points, or 1.96, to 9,191.29.

 

In the U.S., there are those companies that have become more expensive from the restart of economies. The cost of securities from Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS). up 7.2%, MGM Resorts International by 5.8% and Carnival Corp (LON:CCL). 10.6%. Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) and United Airlines added 8.2 percent and 11.4 percent, respectively.

 

The value of Wells Fargo securities (NYSE:WFC) and Co. jumped more than 6%, shares of Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Citigroup (NYSE:C) are adding about 5%, JPMorgan Chase securities are growing by 3.9%.

 

Tesla Inc.'s shares rose 2.9 percent. As authorities in Alameda County, California, approve a plan by the U.S. electric car maker to reopen the Fremont plant

 

Market Value of American Express Co (NYSE:AXP). (AmEx) rose 5.1 percent, but the volume of loans on AmEx cards, one of the leaders of the U.S. plastic card market, in the U.S. fell 8.8 percent in April compared to March, the company said in a statement posted on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC) website.

15

12.05.2020

Yandex will tell about the solvency of Russians

Russian company Yandex announced the release of a new analytical product that will assess the creditworthiness of Russians. The new system has already entered the market and is being tested by several Russian banks at once, but the press service of Yandex said that analytical analysis does not yet affect the issuance of a loan.

 

Currently Yandex is working with OKB and Equifax, which are large credit bureaus. Cooperation is mutually beneficial, since Yandex has anonymous statistical data of users, and organizations have information about the credit burden of Russians. The analysis scheme is simple: the client's identity is identified by e-mail and phone number, then the data is encrypted and transferred to the aggregator for processing.

 

A new analytical tool from Yandex assesses the creditworthiness of customers, it is added to the scoring score, after which the final result goes directly to the bank. Yandex employees say that all data is confidential and is located exclusively in a closed company circuit, and data processing is carried out using automatic algorithms.

 

The press service of Yandex says - “Based on the results of the analysis, the partner receives only one number - the result of the assessment. This result is not a guide to action and does not affect the assessment provided by our partners in the framework of credit scoring. It is for guidance only and is provided for marketing use only. ”

 

It should be noted that the aggregator uses about a thousand factors in its analysis. Developers are silent on what exactly is meant by “factors”, because Yandex has an electronic wallet, browser, mail, taxi aggregator, job search service and many other services.

 

“Predictive models have long been an integral part of business from different areas: retail, logistics, finance and others. Most Internet companies provide such solutions. They help, for example, optimize marketing campaigns, reduce user churn, improve recommendation systems and reduce the risks of making a variety of decisions, ”Yandex noted.

 

Director General of the National Rating Agency Alexei Bogomolov said that based on new analytics that work with aggregated and impersonal data, the scoring score increases the ability of banks to assess potential borrowers.

8

15.04.2020

Dollar rate to Bitcoin: why the price has become lower

Despite the fabulous forecasts from analysts, in mid-September the price of Bitcoin fell below the figure of 10,000 USD. If you analyze Bitcoin from September to August, the price is traded in the range of 9,500 USD to 11,000 USD, at the moment the price for Bitcoin is trading within 9 743 USD, however, in the last 5 days the price goes down. Unfortunately, the launch of the Bakkt platform did not affect the rate hike, the market is on the decline.

 

ICE (New York Stock Exchange) recorded a surprisingly low contracting rate for Bakkt. A total of 72 monthly contracts and 2 day contracts were signed, the sum for one contract was 1 Bitcoin. This indicates that investors consider investing in Bitcoin irrational and are waiting for a depreciation of the rate.

 

Well-known trader Anatoly Radchenko said - "there is a conspiracy theory that institutional investors, who operate large volumes in the regulated market of bitcoin futures, artificially understate the price. In November and December last year, CME had a spike in open positions when the price of Bitcoin fell below $4000. Accordingly, the launch of Bakkt will lead to a new wave of declines of several months before contract holders begin to close contracts."

 

And if Radchenko believes that the launch of Bakkt is a unique phenomenon and the market will soon feel it, then Dmitry Alexandrov (managing director of Ivolga Capital) holds a very different opinion.

 

Alexandrov says- "I believe that the cryptocurrency has already passed its highs and will not be able to return to them. Bitcoin is not a means of accumulation, it is still a means of calculation. While Bitcoin was a pioneer, it was the only way to meet the market demand for the currency of such a plan. Now every day there are new cryptocurrencies, which at least do not differ in nature from BTC, and as much as possible exceed it in their technical characteristics (such as the speed of confirmation of transactions)."