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08.07.2022
The euro hit a 20-year low on Friday, licking its wounds at the end of its worst week in two months as investors braced for Europe to enter a recession while markets waited for U.S. employment data to set the next direction for the dollar.
The euro fell more than 2% this week on fears that gas shortages are looming in Europe and economic growth will suffer. It hit a two-decade low of $1.0144 overnight and is barely clinging to parity, buying $1,0185 for the last time.
The fall of the euro led to the fact that the US dollar index this week reached a two-decade high of 107.270, and in Asia the index was last slightly below this level and fell by 0.1% - 106.840.
"Europe is exposed to great risks related to energy dependence, the crisis of the cost of living for consumers and the risk of fragmentation. This means a depreciation of the euro / dollar, "Citi analysts say.
The Australian dollar rose 0.3% on Friday to $0.6850, down from a two-year low of $0.6762, thanks to an infrastructure stimulus program announced in China that traders hope will boost demand for the commodity.
Sterling also seems to have weathered a week of British political chaos relatively well. It was down 0.3% for the week but rebounded slightly overnight when Prime Minister Boris Johnson resigned, putting an end to uncertainty about his future.
The pound last traded for $1.2053 and was on track for its best week in more than two years thanks to a weakening euro.
The New Zealand dollar rose 0.3% to $0.6192 and looks set for a stable week. Growing concerns about the outlook for the global economy stabilized the fall of the Japanese yen as investors seek safety and it held at 135.94 per dollar.
While skyrocketing energy prices appear to be unsettling confidence and growth in Europe, investors are also concerned about the health of the U.S. economy, even as the latest data has been better than expected.
The next indicator will be data on employment in the non-agricultural sector of the US, which should be released at 12:30 GMT. Economists predict that about 268,000 jobs were created in June.
Higher rates could ease some fears of a recession, but are likely to raise rates for rate hikes and could lead to a rise in the dollar.
"More significant job growth will underpin expectations of an even more aggressive Fed policy," said Carol Cong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.
Deutsche Bank strategist Alan Ruskin also said simply living up to expectations would be enough to encourage talk of "U.S. exceptionalism" in the face of a global energy shock.
This could keep the dollar high, "with euro/dollar parity being the most obvious target for a few days/weeks," he said. The dollar has also held out in emerging markets, causing several Asian currencies to fall to multi-year lows this week, with the Indian rupee hitting an all-time low.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, began to recover, rising in price over the week by almost 15% to $ 22,100.
16.06.2022
Wells Fargo economists said Wednesday they expect the U.S. to fall into recession in 2023 after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by the largest amount since 1994 in a bid to suppress inflation.
The Fed's actions caused a change in views on Wall Street regarding the prospects for US growth, with analysts of all countries saying that the risks of recession are increasing.
On Wednesday, the central bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points — far more than the traditional 25 basis point hike — to bring the target range of the federal funds rate to 1.5 to 1.75%.
Fed officials said that in the current state of affairs, they expect to raise rates to about 3.8% in 2023.
Wells Fargo said a sharp increase in interest rates that would push borrowing costs across the economy would likely trigger a "mild recession" in mid-2023.
The bank's chief economist, Jay Bryson, previously believed that the Fed would be able to curb inflation without a sharp slowdown in growth.
"In our view, the recession will be more or less equivalent in scale and duration to the recession of 1990-1991. That recession lasted two quarters, and the peak of the decline in real GDP from peak to peak was
real GDP by 1.4," Bryson said in a note to clients on Wednesday.
Wells Fargo wasn't the only one who became more pessimistic about the U.S. economy on Wednesday.
Sima Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, said the Fed's updated economic forecasts indicated a recession could begin even if Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters that such a fate could still be avoided.
The Fed abandoned its "flawless disinflation" scenario, instead acknowledging that unemployment is likely to rise if they have any hope of lowering inflation," she said.
"And while a recession doesn't directly appear in their forecast, a 0.5% increase in the unemployment rate by the end of 2024 definitely indicates a recession."
The Fed's own "dot chart," which shows officials' views on where interest rates are headed, showed that borrowing costs are likely to fall to about 3.4% in 2024. This suggests that policymakers expect to have to cut rates again as the economy slows.
"Tougher and faster measures entail economic costs," said James Knightley, chief international economist at Dutch bank ING. "Rising recession risks mean that rate cuts will be on the agenda in the summer of 2023."
02.06.2022
Oil prices fell after a report that Saudi Arabia is ready to increase crude oil production if Production in Russia drops significantly after European Union sanctions.
The Financial Times reported, citing sources, that Saudi Arabia is aware of the risk of supply shortages and that "it is not in its interest to lose control over oil prices."
Oil prices fell in the morning hours of trading in Asia. Futures for the international benchmark Brent crude oil fell by 2.12% to $113.82 per barrel. U.S. crude futures fell 2.18% at $112.75 a barrel.
EU leaders on Monday agreed to ban 90% of Russian oil by the end of the year as part of the sixth package of sanctions the bloc has imposed against Russia since its invasion of Ukraine. Initially, this led to an increase in oil prices.
Sources told the FT that Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, has yet to see a real shortage in oil markets. So far, it has ignored pressure from Washington to accelerate production increases as oil prices have risen sharply this year.
But that could change when economies around the world reopen amid a pandemic recovery, boosting demand for crude oil.
These include China, the world's largest oil importer, where major cities are beginning to ease restrictions as daily Covid cases decline.
"While not a direct promise, Saudi Arabia [seems] has thrown a bone to the West," Matt Simpson, a market analyst at Britain-based trading platform City Index, wrote in a post-news release note.
"This will be well received by Western leaders, given that inflation – and inflation expectations – remain at sky-high levels, and central banks are trying to raise rates, risking plunging their economies into recession," he added.
The FT report comes ahead of the monthly meeting of the OPEC+ alliance on Thursday, which includes Russia. Russia is the second largest exporter of crude oil in the world after Saudi Arabia.
At the same time, some members of OPEC+ are also considering the possibility of removing Russia from participating in the deal on oil production, reports The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed OPEC delegates.
OPEC delegates are reportedly concerned about growing economic pressure on Russia and its ability to pump more oil to lower rising prices.
18.05.2022
According to Yardeni Research, U.S. households now spend the equivalent of $5,000 a year on gasoline, up from $2,800 a year ago.
In March, the annual level of gasoline costs was $ 3,800, Yardeni noted. In the week of May 16, the national retail price of gasoline reached a record $4.59 per gallon, the firm said.
"No wonder the consumer sentiment index is so depressed. Not surprisingly, retail sales in April and May were surprisingly high," Yardeni said in a note.
According to Yardeni, consumers' inflation-adjusted incomes are barely growing, but they have accumulated a lot of savings, and they have begun to pay more on credit cards.
However, Yardeni says that it is not worth betting against American consumers: "When we are happy, we spend money. When we're depressed, we spend even more money!"
Retail sales data for April, released on Tuesday, was surprisingly strong. Year-on-year, retail sales for the month rose 8.2%.
Gasoline sales in April were actually down from March as prices temporarily fell before rising to a record high in May. According to the Commerce Department, gasoline spending in April rose nearly 37% from a year ago.
According to the AAA, a year ago the price of gasoline was $3.04 a gallon. This week, the average price rose above $4 a gallon in all 50 states, according to AAA data.
The national average price on Wednesday was $4.57 a gallon, according to the AAA website.
06.05.2022
The dollar index weakened growth on Friday after hitting a new 20-year high, as traders weighed the recent sell-off in world markets caused by fears of a recession.
European stocks fell in the wake of the wall street crash.
The U.S. currency has strengthened on expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy faster than other countries to stem rapid inflation.
In April, 428,000 jobs were created in the U.S., which was slightly more than the 400,000 expected by the Dow Jones.
The dollar index, which tracks its performance against a basket of six major rivals, rose 0.5% in early European trading and hit a new 20-year high of 104.07.
However, it then lost ground in volatile trading and last fell 0.1% to 103.66. For a 1-week period, it has been growing for the fifth week in a row, an increase of 0.7%.
On Wednesday, the Fed raised rates by half a percentage point — the biggest jump in 22 years — but the dollar temporarily cooled on comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that policymakers are not considering actively raising rates by 75 basis points in the future.
"Financial market conditions need to become tougher to change the central bank's view of inflation risks, so the U.S. dollar will remain on the path to strengthening for now," MUFG said in a note.
At the beginning of European trading, the euro lost to 0.5% against the dollar, but then changed course. The last time it changed slightly at $1.0545.
Sterling was trading at $1.2337 after earlier falling below $1.23 for the first time in almost two years, a day after the Bank of England issued a sharp warning that britain risked a double whammy of recession and inflation above 10%.
The Bank of England also joined the Fed in raising rates, raising them by a quarter of a percentage point to 1%.
The yen rose slightly against the dollar, 0.4% to 130.58 yen to the dollar.
22.04.2022
The dollar was aiming for its seventh straight weekly gain against the yen on Friday and its best weekly gain against the Chinese yuan in more than two years, as rising U.S. yields boosted the dollar.
China is easing monetary policy and Japan is holding its government bond yields to zero, while Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a 50 basis point rate hike could be considered at the next meeting in two weeks.
That announcement, while more or less in line with market expectations, sent the yield on five-year U.S. bonds above 3% for the first time since 2018, sparking a rebound in the euro.
The euro last bought $1.0837 and is not well above a two-year low, even as markets begin to assess higher rates - two-year yields in Germany hit an eight-year high overnight.
The yen was down 1.6% for the week and last traded at 128.35 per dollar, just above Wednesday's 20-year low of 129.43. The U.S. dollar index held above the 100 mark at 100.83.
The yuan broke through its 200-day moving average this week and hit a fresh seven-month low of 6.4830 in early session offshore trading. It last traded at 6.5004.
"The (swap) market is now pricing in a 146 basis point tightening over the next three Fed meetings," Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Carol Kong said.
"The dollar could get additional support from safe haven demand today if April's PMIs raise market concerns about the outlook for global growth," she added, referring to purchasing managers' index data due out in Europe and the U.S.
Growth worries have been holding back oil prices lately, and along with fears of economic damage from factory closures in China put pressure on commodity currencies overnight.
The Australian dollar fell 1 percent on Thursday and was hanging around its 50-day moving average at $0.7308 on Friday. The New Zealand dollar also fell 1 percent overnight and was down to $0.6685 on Friday.
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said Friday that the recent fall in the yen was "sharp," and his comment seemed to halt the yen's losses, although he added that he did not express concern about it in a meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Japan's core consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in more than two years in March, raising the risk that policymakers may try to shore up the currency to ease pressure on households from rising energy and imported food prices.
The pound was down to $1.2909.
07.04.2022
Gold prices remained stable after the publication on Wednesday of the minutes of the March meeting of the US Federal Reserve, as the attractiveness of the metal as a safe haven and hedge for inflation leveled the expected increase in the rate of the US central bank by 50 basis points.
By 3:08 p.m. ET, spot gold had changed little at $1,923.50 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures were down 0.2% at $1,923.10.
"You'll see gold trade a little lower between today and the close of trading, but there wasn't much surprise in those (Fed's) minutes," said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, adding that the downside opportunities for gold are limited.
"Markets were expecting a half-point rate hike."
Fed officials noted that one or more 50 bp rate hikes in the target range may be appropriate for future meetings, the next of which will be held in May, especially if inflationary pressures remain elevated or intensify, according to minutes of the March 15-16 meeting.
The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points after the March meeting, and the minutes showed that the economic consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February did not allow for a 50 basis point hike.
Rising U.S. interest rates and rising yields increase the opportunity cost of owning bullion, which is also used as a hedge against rising inflation.
However, gold prices could continue to rise over the next two quarters as the Fed fails to raise rates quickly enough to combat high inflation, Haberkorn added.
The dollar jumped to a nearly two-year high, which reduced the attractiveness of gold.
"There are still a number of things that can trigger a new rally in gold. Inflation continues to rise above current expectations, negotiations between Ukraine and Russia have failed or recessioned," said Craig Earlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.
Among other precious metals, silver rose 0.4% to $24.40 an ounce, platinum fell 1.5% to $953.88, and palladium fell 2.2% to $2,189.43.
21.02.2022
On Monday, European markets closed lower, as investors monitored the situation in relations between Russia and Ukraine and unexpectedly strong economic data from the Eurozone and the UK.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 1.4%, initially trading higher at the start of the session. Cars fell 2.7% due to losses as all sectors and major exchanges went into the red.
President Joe Biden "in principle" agreed to a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, paving the way for the latest diplomatic effort to prevent an invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Sunday night if Moscow does not launch an invasion in the coming days, the summit will take place after a scheduled meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov later this week.
However, a U.S. official said Moscow had compiled lists of Ukrainians to be attacked after the invasion, according to a letter reviewed by NBC News.
Shares in the Asia-Pacific region mostly declined on Monday as investors continued to monitor the situation around Ukraine, while China left its benchmark lending rate unchanged.
Markets in the United States closed on Monday in connection with the President's Day holiday, after a sharp drop on Friday, as global markets were agitated by rising tensions in Easter n Europe.
In corporate news, Credit Suisse said in a statement on Sunday that it "strongly rejects" the allegations, published after a coordinated global media investigation into the massive leakage of its customers' data in previous decades. It was assumed that the leaked information contained violators of human rights and businessmen under sanctions.
The Swiss lender said the information published by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project and 46 other news organizations is based on "partial, inaccurate, or selective information taken out of context." Shares of Credit Suisse fell 3%.
Shares of Swedish real estate company SBB rose 6% topped the Stoxx 600 later in the evening, with high trading volumes causing sharp swings in stocks after Viceroy Research announced the shorts. that she had a short position on the company's shares.
At the bottom of the index, Polymetal International shares fell more than 8% as Russia-focused stocks took a hit.
As for the data, despite the record increase in consumer prices, in February, according to IHS Markit, the composite PMI index (purchasing managers' index) of the eurozone, considered a reliable indicator of the general state of the economy, reached a five-month high and amounted to 55.8.
This figure significantly exceeded the forecast of 52.7, made by the results of the Reuters poll, and 52.3, recorded in January.
The UK composite PMI hit an eight-month high of 60.2 in February, down from 54.2 in January and well above forecasts.
Strong indicators raise expectations that central banks will need to raise rates in the near future. That's sharper than previously expected as inflation continues to rise.
09.02.2022
Elon Musk's SpaceX expects the loss of almost an entire batch of Starlink satellites after a solar storm hit the Earth's atmosphere.
The company launched 49 Starlink satellites using a Falcon 9 rocket on Feb. 3. The launch was successful and delivered a batch of satellites into orbit, but the next day there was a catastrophe.
The geomagnetic storm disrupted the Earth's atmosphere. Starlink's satellites were in low orbit, and the company said "up to 40 satellites" would be lost to the storm, burning up in Earth's atmosphere.
Tamita Skov, a researcher at the Aerospace Corporation, spoke about the basic principles of a geomagnetic storm: First, "the sun shoots magnets" in the form of a storm. The Earth's magnetic shield dumps the energy of a solar storm into the upper atmosphere of our planet, heats it, causing it to inflate and become denser. This increases the resistance to satellites in low Earth orbit.
SpaceX said that "the rate of increase and severity of the storm led to an increase in atmospheric drag" by 50% more than satellites typically experience in low orbit. After detecting increased atmospheric resistance, the company's task force put the satellites into emergency mode, which turns the spacecraft to the edge of orbit to reduce drag - a position the company previously called the "shark fin" orientation.
About 10 Starlink satellites are expected to survive and climb into the target orbit.
SpaceX did not say whether it was aware of the storm, which, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, was caused by a solar flare on Jan. 29.
NOAA ranks geomagnetic storms on an increasing severity scale from G1 to G5. The agency issued a warning about a "likely" geomagnetic storm from G1 to G2 on Feb. 2, the day before SpaceX's launch.
On average, there are 1700 such G1 storms per solar cycle, according to NOAA data cited by Eric Palmerio, a space weather researcher at Predictive Science, a company that studies the Sun for U.S. government agencies.
"It's a pretty common situation in terms of geomagnetic activity" to see a storm as strong as the one that disabled starlink satellites last week, Palmerio said.
SpaceX initially puts satellites into a lower orbit to launch more satellites at one time and to ensure that any problems identified after launch cause the faulty satellite to quickly deorbit and burn up in the atmosphere. The company touts its Starlink satellites as completely decaying upon re-entry, "which means no orbital debris and no satellite parts hitting the ground."
As a private company, SpaceX hasn't disclosed the exact cost of its Starlink satellites or Falcon 9 launches — but losing much of the mission could entail a financial shock of up to $50 million.
The company has previously reported that when SpaceX reuses its Falcon 9 rockets, the cost per launch ranges from $28 million to $30 million. And with regard to satellites, the company's management said that the estimate of the cost of one spacecraft at $ 1 million was "greatly inflated." At half that estimate — or $500,000 per satellite — losing about 40 satellites would cost about $20 million.
Notably, SpaceX previously deorbited "one or two" Starlink satellites after the mission ended, explained astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell. McDowell is an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and catalogs satellite launches.
"But losing most of the party is unheard of," McDowell said. "It's a huge loss compared to anything that's happened before."
McDowell also said the loss is significant for SpaceX, as "in the context of historic satellite launches," the company "has been quite successful."
"The missile is at least very reliable ... and since mid-2020, there have been relatively few complete failures of Starlink satellites," McDowell said.
04.02.2022
On Friday, the Biden administration said it would extend Section 201 of tariffs on imported solar panels and panels for another four years, but with a number of changes to existing regulations.
The tariff rate quota for solar panels will increase from 2.5 gigawatts to 5 gigawatts, and the administration will also support the decision to exclude bifacial panels from tariffs. Bifacial panels, which absorb light on both sides, are most common in utility-scale solar projects.
The Solar Energy Producers Association said that while it was "disappointed" by the decision, it "supported" the administration's efforts to find a middle ground.
"Administration officials came to a balanced solution by supporting an exemption for bifacial panels and increasing the tariff rate quota for the elements," Abigail Ross Hopper, the association's president and ceo, said in a statement.
The American Clean Energy Association said it "welcomes" the administration's decision to remove bifacial panels from tariffs, supporting the extension as a whole.
"The president's decision to extend the tariffs applicable to monoblock solar cells and modules gives the domestic solar industry another four years to adjust to competition with imports, as the law intended," Heather Zichal, ceo of the American Clean Energy Association, said in a statement.
The Section 201 solar tariffs were announced by former President Donald Trump in January 2018 and went into effect that same year. The four-year tariffs were due to expire on Sunday. The initial tariffs were 30% with an annual reduction of 5%.
In November, the U.S. International Trade Commission recommended that the tariffs be extended. The Commission said these measures are still "necessary to prevent or repair serious damage" to domestic industry.
"There is evidence that domestic industry is positively adapting to competition from imports," the commission said.
However, others argue that tariffs have done little to stimulate domestic production. According to Rystad Energy, the tariffs "comprehensively failed." In December, the company said the U.S. would import a record 3 gigawatts of solar panels in 2021, up from 2.5 gigawatts imported in 2019.
Energy research firm Wood Mackenzie noted that solar modules used in U.S. solar projects are 55% more expensive than in European projects due to layers of tariffs.
The decision comes amid turbulent times for the industry. Over the past year, shares of solar companies have crashed due to a number of factors, including rising raw material costs, supply chain bottlenecks and political uncertainty. More recently, this group has come under wide rotation from growth-oriented areas of the market in the face of rising rates.
This year, the Invesco Solar ETF index has fallen by 20%, which is 25% more than in 2021. Installation companies Sunrun, SunPower and Sunnova are trading about 70% below their 52-week highs. Enphase is more than 50% below its recent high.
Manufacturer First Solar is holding up a little better and is 42% below its 52-week high reached on Nov. 1. The company was among those who advocated for the extension of tariffs.
"First Solar is deeply disappointed by the decision to extend the section 201 safeguard duties while maintaining the exemption of bifacial panels," said First Solar CEO Mark Widmar. "Simply put, the extension of protective duties under Section 201, excluding bifacial panels, is not a protective measure at all."
Samantha Sloan, First Solar's vice president of policy, said Thursday that the cost of solar panels is less than 20% of the equalized cost of electricity for an average utility-scale solar project.
Potential changes to California's solar subsidy program also loom over the group. On Thursday, the state regulator said a decision on the matter had been postponed indefinitely.
24.01.2022
Oil prices fell on Monday due to a stronger dollar and investors' concerns over the possibility of a faster-than-expected interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Brent crude oil fell $2.19, or 2.5%, to $85.70 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down $2.59, or 3%, to $82.56 a barrel.
The dollar rose to a two-week high Monday against a basket of currencies, helped by tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine and the possibility of a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve this week.
Brent rose more than $1 earlier in the session on concerns over tight supplies and heightened geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East.
Further escalation in both Ukraine and the Middle East "justifies a risk premium to the oil price, as the countries involved - Russia and the UAE - are important members of OPEC+," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.
Tensions in Ukraine have been rising for months after Russia concentrated troops near its borders, heightening fears of supply disruptions in Eastern Europe.
In the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates on Monday intercepted and destroyed two Husit ballistic missiles aimed at the Persian Gulf nation after a deadly attack a week earlier.
Meanwhile, Barclays raised its average oil price forecast by $5 a barrel for this year, citing declining spare capacity and heightened geopolitical risks.
The bank raised its 2022 average price forecast to $85 and $82 a barrel for Brent and WTI, respectively.
Both benchmarks rose for the fifth straight week last week, adding about 2% and reaching their highest level since October 2014.
Oil prices have risen more than 10% this year because of concerns about supply cuts, and OPEC+ is currently struggling to meet a target monthly production increase of 400,000 barrels per day.
12.01.2022
Gold stabilized on Wednesday, supported by a weaker dollar following US inflation data, although bullion price gains were offset by improved appetite for riskier assets as consumer price increases were largely in line with expectations.
Spot gold was virtually unchanged at $ 1,823.34 an ounce after the biggest one-day gain since mid-December on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures rose 0.2% to $ 1,821.80.
US consumer prices rose in December, inflation was nearing its peak in four decades, making gold more attractive as an inflation hedge.
The dollar fell to a two-month low after the data was released, making gold more attractive to foreign investors, while the yield on 10-year US bonds was also reduced.
Core inflationary data, coming in hotter than expected, supports gold, and we continue to watch this inflationary pressure rise, maintaining gold's hedge status in the weeks ahead, said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
Meger added that gold could overcome technical resistance around $ 1830.
But this was a mixed package for gold, as higher inflation could also reinforce expectations that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, which in turn will increase the opportunity cost of owning non-interest bullion.
Growth on Wall Street was also a constraining factor for gold growth, as some investors felt that the Fed may not raise rates as quickly as expected, as the rise in inflation was largely in line with analysts' expectations and was probably estimated.
Analysts at TD Securities said in a note that gold's resilience can be attributed to strong physical demand and the fact that markets have already priced almost 3.5 Fed rate hikes by December, as well as more aggressive cuts.
Spot silver rose 1.3% to $ 23.05 an ounce, platinum rose 1% to $ 980.77 and palladium rose 1.3% to $ 1,946.61.